As the Pittsburgh Pirates' ace, Paul Skenes, endures a winless drought that's approaching historic proportions, the question on everyone's mind is: What's next for this once-promising pitcher? With a string of nine winless starts since May 12, Skenes is in the midst of the worst stretch of his MLB career. This drought is tied for the second-longest by a reigning Cy Young Award winner, just one behind Blake Snell and Jim Perry for the record, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. But what makes this situation particularly fascinating is the contrast between Skenes' current struggles and his previous success. In his rookie year, Skenes' fastball topped out at 101.9 mph, and he averaged 26 pitches per outing at 98 mph or faster. Fast forward to now, and his fastball has slowed significantly, ranging from 93.6 mph to 97.9 mph in his most recent start against the Phillies. This sudden change in velocity raises a deeper question: What's causing Skenes' decline, and can he recover his former glory? One thing that immediately stands out is the decline in spin rate on Skenes' four-seam fastball. The spin rate, which measures the rotation of the ball, has dropped from 2,318 on April 1 to 1,987 on July 1. This decrease in spin rate could be a significant factor in Skenes' struggles, as it may be affecting the movement and effectiveness of his pitches. What many people don't realize is that Skenes' offspeed value, which measures the effectiveness of his curveballs and sliders, was in the 100th percentile in all of baseball when he was a rookie. However, this mark has slightly declined in 2025, but it still remains in the 98th percentile. This suggests that Skenes' struggles may not be solely due to his fastball, but rather a combination of factors affecting his overall pitching performance. From my perspective, the situation facing Skenes is a cautionary tale for young pitchers. It serves as a reminder that even the most talented athletes can face setbacks and challenges. What's particularly interesting is the contrast between Skenes' current struggles and his previous success. This raises a deeper question: What's causing Skenes' decline, and can he recover his former glory? One thing that immediately stands out is the decline in spin rate on Skenes' four-seam fastball. The spin rate, which measures the rotation of the ball, has dropped from 2,318 on April 1 to 1,987 on July 1. This decrease in spin rate could be a significant factor in Skenes' struggles, as it may be affecting the movement and effectiveness of his pitches. Looking ahead, Skenes will face the Braves on Tuesday, a team he has only faced once in his career. This provides an opportunity for him to rebound and regain his form. However, the question remains: Can Skenes overcome his current struggles and return to his former glory? Only time will tell. In the meantime, Skenes' situation serves as a reminder that even the most talented athletes can face setbacks and challenges. It's a testament to the unpredictability of sports and the importance of resilience and determination in overcoming adversity.
